National Hurricane Center

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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Updated: 38 min 55 sec ago

Hurricane Local Statement for Charleston, SC

2 hours 32 min ago
Issued at 837 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)

6 hours 4 min ago
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 09:06:11 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)

6 hours 4 min ago
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 09:06:03 GMT
Categories: Weather

Hurricane Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

6 hours 13 min ago
Issued at 455 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Graphics

6 hours 28 min ago

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 08:42:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 08:39:42 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 7

6 hours 29 min ago
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210841 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH BROKEN RAINBANDS CONTINUING AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BE WEAKER. THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUITE COMPACT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING NO MORE THAN 150 N MI ACROSS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER THE GULF STREAM...WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...VERY DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEREFORE...KEEPS ALBERTO AT THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS AND BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...NEARLY COMPLETING THE ANTICIPATED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CYCLONE. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...TAKING THE COMPACT TROPICAL STORM PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE...OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COASTLINE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 30.4N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 30.6N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 31.8N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 33.5N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 35.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Advisory 7 Forecast Track (.kmz)

6 hours 29 min ago
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 08:41:16 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Advisory 7 Forecast Cone of Uncertainty (.kmz)

6 hours 29 min ago
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 08:41:16 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Advisory 7 Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)

6 hours 29 min ago
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 08:41:15 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

6 hours 30 min ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 000 FONT11 KNHC 210840 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 0900 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 5 8 15 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 40 39 43 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 63 53 49 39 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 3 4 3 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 4 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory Number 7

6 hours 30 min ago
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210839 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 ...COMPACT ALBERTO NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 79.7W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ENE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Number 7

6 hours 30 min ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210839 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 0900 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 79.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 79.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 30.6N 78.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.8N 76.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 33.5N 74.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 79.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Categories: Weather

Cyclone Information by XML (protoype)

6 hours 31 min ago
Issued at Mon, 21 May 2012 08:39:22 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Best Track Information (.shp)

6 hours 31 min ago
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 08:38:41 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Best Track Information (.kmz)

6 hours 31 min ago
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 08:38:41 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Information (.shp)

6 hours 31 min ago
GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 08:38:41 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Graphics

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:07pm

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 02:39:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 03:04:44 GMT
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 9:38pm
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 000 FONT11 KNHC 210238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 0300 UTC MON MAY 21 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 8 10 17 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 39 39 38 37 39 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 59 53 52 49 39 NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 2 4 5 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 3 4 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory Number 6

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 9:38pm
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...ALBERTO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 80.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Categories: Weather

Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 6

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 9:38pm
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210238 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ALBERTO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT ON THE JACKSONVILLE DOPPLER RADAR. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND DOPPLER WIND DATA SUGGEST THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO ALBERTO MOVING OVER WARM WATERS ALONG THE GULF STREAM...BUT IN A MODERATE-TO- STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM LOSES ALL DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. ALBERTO HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING 180/4. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A PECULIAR PLACE WITHIN THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ALBERTO MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 30.5N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 30.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.5N 77.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 33.2N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 35.5N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 39.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Categories: Weather